For years the fans, journalists and the players themselves have been calling for a college football playoff. Tomorrow at 5:00 PM in Pasadena, California we finally get what we’ve all been asking for—a playoff. The Seminoles of Florida State take on the Oregon Ducks in a matchup of the last two Heisman Trophy recipients, with the winner moving on to play the winner of the Alabama/Ohio State game in a true national championship.
Plenty of column inches have been spent comparing the opposing quarterbacks, and the game should be an interesting look at their differing styles. Drop back pro-style quarterback Jameis Winston hasn’t had as prolific a year statistically as last season’s Heisman Trophy winning campaign (a feat that would have been near impossible, partly because last season was so outstanding and also because he has had to shoulder more of the load himself), but he has excelled during crunch time, and brings an unblemished record as a starter into the game.
On the other side, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has been stellar nearly the entire season, and was a deserving winner of this year’s Heisman. Excelling in Oregon’s up-tempo spread attack, he has accounted for 52 touchdowns this season passing and rushing the football. However, offensive line issues have resulted in 29 sacks this season, with Mariota fumbling seven times. If Florida State wants to win the game, getting pressure on Mariota, containing him in the pocket, and limiting his yards when he breaks containment will be key (of course that’s a bit like saying the most important part of winning a game is scoring more points than your opponent).
With the obligatory hyping of the quarterbacks out of the way, let me address a few points that I think will be keys in this game. First, I think that freshman running back Dalvin Cook is going to be a difference maker. His emergence late in the season (he’s played a monster role in three of the Seminole’s last four games) has taken some of the load off of Winston. If he has a big game, look for the Seminoles to control the clock a bit, and attempt to keep Oregon’s quick-strike offense on the sideline. With Oregon losing the services of top defensive back Ifo Ekpre-Olomu for the contest, I wouldn’t be surprised if freshman Travis Rudolph didn’t make a few big catches to keep drives going.
While Cook has emerged as the FSU’s feature back, with senior Karlos Williams moving to a complementary role, Oregon boasts four players with at least 50 carries this season. If the State wants to avoid a track meet, Mario Edwards Jr. is going to have to be strong at the point of attack and Jalen Ramsey will have to be step up in run support, otherwise freshman standout Royce Freeman and Mariota could have a big day on the ground.
Finally, while the Seminoles have played a number of close games this season, with seven of their wins coming by a touchdown or less, Oregon is not similarly battle tested, going 1-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Florida State has taken much grief for not dismantling what many viewed as a middling schedule, but some deeper analysis of conference strength suggests that the ACC has been underrated. If the game is close, I think that the Seminole’s experience in tight spots will serve them well.
Vegas has Oregon as an 8 point favorite, I like FSU to win the game outright 41-3 7.
Alabama/Ohio State
Nick Saban brings another juggernaut Crimson Tide squad to The Big Easy to face Urban Meyer and the Ohio State Buckeyes. The conventional wisdom is that Alabama simply has too much talent all over the field for the Buckeyes to handle. The loss of J.T. Barrett certainly doesn’t help Ohio State’s cause. While Cardale Jones is making only his second start, the extra practice since the Big Ten Championship game does help matters a bit. Of course it’s impossible to simulate the defensive intensity that Alabama typically brings to the table, and expect Saban to employ every defensive scheme in the book in an attempt to rattle the young quarterback. However, Alabama has shown itself to be susceptible to the deep pass, and Jones showed that he was capable in that regard in his first start. The Buckeyes are going to need some quick strikes if they want to hang with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama comes equipped with their usual stable of top flight running backs (T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry) and first year starter quarterback Blake Sims has been a revelation, setting an Alabama single season record for passing yards. However, the key player on Bama’s offense is Amari Cooper. Cooper accounted for 45% of the Tide’s receptions this season, and has the potential to give opposing defenses fits. Ohio State’s defensive line should be up to the challenge of limiting, if not stopping, Alabama’s rushing attack, but if they want to keep the Tide from lighting up the scoreboard, safety Vonn Bell is going to have to have a strong game in the secondary.
Las Vegas has the line set at Alabama favored by 9. While I think that it will be tough for the Buckeyes to pull the upset, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Coach Meyer pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Alabama 31-Ohio State 24.
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